3. The market opportunity: scale and technology pipeline
Provide a granular breakdown of the project’s technical requirements
ALPHA
Section objective
To provide a granular breakdown of the project’s technical requirements. By categorising properties into 'technology pathways,' the council enables the supply chain to see exactly which products and skills will be in demand and they can identify more precisely where they can contribute.
The value to stakeholders
Manufacturers: can forecast the volume of units (eg, 4,000 ASHPs vs. 2,000 shared loop systems) needed in their production cycle and forecast investment into wider supply chain enhancements such as marketing, show homes and sales teams.
Installers: can identify if they have the right certifications (eg, MCS for individual units vs. specialist drilling/groundwork skills for shared loops) existing fossil-fuel installers are able to make decisions about joining the renewables workforce based on the future direction for their local market.
Investors/lenders: The 'total pipeline' figure (~7,500) provides the scale needed to justify project finance or specialised delivery models.
What to include in this section
Technology segmentation: don't just list a total number of homes. Break them down by the likely heating solution (individual, networked, or communal). To help do this, complete the table in the text box below with the estimation for your area using Nesta’s heat planning tool. Briefly explaining why certain technologies were chosen for certain areas (eg, "dense areas with no outdoor space") helps contractors understand the site constraints they will face.
The 'anchor' mix: Explicitly mention non-domestic buildings (schools, colleges, retail). These are 'anchor loads' that often make the commercial case for heat networks more attractive.
Visual data: Include a technology suitability map (as shown in the example below). A map turns a table of numbers into a geographic work plan that a local business can visualise.
Heat planning tool
Nesta is currently developing a clean heat planning tool. This tool will automatically identify the most suitable technological approach for groups of similar neighbouring properties in Great Britain.
The tool is based on open-source data and is free for Local Government.
The video below shows the core features of the tool. It enables the identification of opportunity areas across all groups of low-carbon heating technologies for your local authority, filter opportunity areas according to your priorities and drill down into specific clusters to explore the underlying data such as tenure, property types, information about properties off-gas, presence of listed buildings and more. With one click, you can also export a data-backed pipeline of opportunities to inform your local plan.
Developing a local heat planning tool | Clean heat neighbourhoods playbook
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Heat planning tool
Nesta is developing an open-source data tool to handle planning at the local authority level. If you work in local government, contact us to be amongst the first to access it.
Email us at cleanheatneighbourhoods@nesta.org.uk
Example text
This box below includes a pre-written section that can be filled in with information relevant to your chosen area.
3. The market opportunity: Scale and technology pipeline
Our analysis confirms that a mix of technologies would best meet the diverse needs of AREA's housing stock, including KEY ANCHOR LOADS. This creates a varied and significant pipeline of work. The plan is built around three core technology pathways, with a clear initial rough breakdown of the market size for each, as shown in Table 1.
Table 1. Initial breakdown of potential technology pathways
Technology pathway | Description | Estimated properties(includes a mix of individual houses, flats and larger commercial and educational buildings) |
Individual heat sources | Standalone systems per property, such as air source heat pumps, ground source heat pumps, air to air heat pumps or other electrified heating. | NUMBER – NUMBER |
Networked heat sources | Individual ground source heat pumps connected via a shared loop, known as shared ground loops or networked ground source heat pumps. | NUMBER – NUMBER |
Communal heat sources | A single large heat source (e.g. communal ASHP or GSHP) serving an individual building and multiple dwellings, or a small number of nearby buildings via a communal heat network. Networked GSHP could also be suitable. | NUMBER – NUMBER |
Total pipeline | ~NUMBER |
Map 1. Technology suitability map for AREA.
INSERT MAP
In summary, this section establishes the technical roadmap for AREA, moving from broad ambition to defined heat pathways for different areas withinAREA. The analysis confirms that a mix of technologies is essential to meet the diverse needs of the AREA’s properties. This data-led approach provides the certainty you need to forecast demand, prepare stock, and allocate personnel
The example from Plymouth
Recommendation
At this stage it is recommended to engage the supply chain and other local stakeholders.
It is recommended to form an advisory group that ensure interests are represented and opportunities identified through the combination of local and professional knowledge. This also invites other to be included within the plan, and it’s onward development and delivery.
For more guidance on the kind of roles that may form an advisory group see our guidance on forming a team.
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