4. Opportunity deep dive: Defining the pathways

These opportunity breakdowns provide a way to aggregate the data provided in this plan by area within AREA, allowing for a crucial shift in perspective from area-wide strategic planning to local, technology-specific action. By summarising the relevant data for each identified zone, these opportunity breakdowns serve as a key operational tool for the supply chain to rapidly understand the optimal intervention for a specific area. This ensures they can efficiently deliver the plan by identifying the areas that present a clear opportunity for installation of the appropriate technology required to meet AREA's decarbonisation goals.

4.1. Opportunity area – Example 1: Individual heat source

The key features of an area suitable for an individual heat source contrast sharply with the characteristics suitable for networked heat, making a decentralised approach highly efficient, they include:

• Building types: low-density and outdoor space is crucial as it significantly simplifies the physical installation of both ASHPs and potentially GSHPs.

• Ownership profile and funding alignment: although funding for individual heat sources is available across tenure types, a high proportion of owner occupiers may suggest an easier area for individual installs that could utilise the BUS (Boiler Upgrade Scheme).

• No anchor load or network proximity: no major source of waste heat, or no buildings with a heat demand, may suggest an individual approach is more suitable for the area. 

Based on Map 1 above, this sample analysis focuses on Opportunity AREA ID/NAME as a prime example of a zone strategically well-suited for a strategy centred around the large-scale deployment of individual, property-level heat sources like air source heat pumps (ASHPs) and ground source heat pumps (GSHPs).

The data aggregated on this summary sheet provides the supply chain with a clear, targeted brief:

• Building types:The dominance of detached (NUMBER) and semi-detached (NUMBER) homes strongly supports the mass-market deployment of ASHPs due to the minimal disruption and ample external space. The larger gardens with an average garden size of NUMBERm2, also open the door for GSHPs in specific, high-specification projects.

• Ownership profile and funding alignment: The high percentage of owner-occupiers (NUMBER confirmed, with many of the NUMBER 'Unknown' likely being owners) indicates a consumer base that will be directly responsive to national grant schemes, such as the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS), rather than relying on large social housing provider agreements. The high prevalence of solar panels also indicates a customer base already engaged with and receptive to investing in low-carbon, home-based energy solutions.

No anchor load or network proximity: The area's status as 'No' for both 'Near heat network zone' and 'Near anchor load' confirms the lack of current or planned large-scale infrastructure, reinforcing the case for a self-sufficient, property-by-property approach.

INSERT SUMMARY FACT SHEET FOR AREA ID/NAME

4.2. Opportunity area – Example 2: Shared ground loop

The key features of an area suitable for a shared ground loop contrast sharply with those suited for individual heat sources, making a coordinated, networked approach highly efficient. These features include:

• Building types: High-density terraces where limited outdoor space makes individual heat pump installations challenging and inefficient.

• Ownership profile and funding alignment: A high proportion of social housing managed by a single provider (SOCIAL HOUSING PROVIDER/S) creates a streamlined delivery mechanism, allowing for whole-area coordination rather than individual owner agreements.

• Anchor load or network proximity: While a major industrial anchor load may be absent, high housing density combined with nearby green space (like parks) offers the necessary conditions for a viable ambient heat network.

• This second sample analysis focuses on Opportunity AREA ID/NAME as the prime example of a zone well-suited for a networked heat source, specifically a Shared Ground Loop (SGL) system, given its density and ownership profile. The key features of the area make it an ideal candidate for this solution:

• Building types: The area's dense nature strongly supports the deployment of a shared ground loop. Connecting the predominantly dense terraces to a shared ground array leverages shared infrastructure and minimises the land required at each individual property.

• Stakeholder engagement: The high proportion of social housing, specifically the NUMBER properties owned by HOUSING PROVIDER, indicates a project that can leverage bulk funding opportunities and large-scale infrastructure grants. Engagement efforts are immediately focused on this single major decision-maker to coordinate technical specifications and access.

• No anchor load or network proximity: Although the area is not currently near an existing heat network, the concentration of homes and proximity to the park provides the ideal "virtual anchor" and space for a shared ground array, reinforcing the case for a self-sufficient networked solution.

This detailed breakdown allows contractors to immediately assess the potential scale of the network, understand the required infrastructure and planning, and target the key partners necessary to deliver the plan in AREA ID/NAME.

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4.3. Opportunity area – Example 3: Communal heat source

The key features of an area suitable for a communal heat source involve high property density and shared infrastructure requirements, making a centralised approach for multiple dwellings highly efficient; they include:

• Building types: Dense properties with little or no private outdoor space, particularly those with existing communal heating systems or the capacity for a shared plant room.

• Ownership profile and funding alignment: Concentrations of social housing or managed apartment blocks (like student halls) provide a streamlined route for installing a single large heat source to serve multiple dwellings.

• Proximity to heat sources: Suitability is often defined by access to waste heat sources or enough communal outdoor space to host a shared ASHP or GSHP array (Networked GSHP).

This sample analysis focuses on Opportunity AREA ID/NAME as a prime example of a zone strategically well-suited for a strategy centred around a communal heat source (such as a heat network, communal ASHP or networked GSHP).

The data aggregated on this summary sheet provides the supply chain with a clear, targeted brief:

• Building types: The dominance of NUMBER flats and NUMBER terraced properties (NUMBER end and NUMBER mid-terrace), combined with a very small average garden size of NUMBERm2, makes individual installs impractical. This density strongly supports a communal approach, utilising a single large heat source or networked approach to serve the blocks of flats or clusters of terraces via a small-scale communal network.

• Ownership profile and funding alignment: The presence of NUMBER social rented properties managed by HOUSING PROVIDER and student halls managed by a private company provides two major entry points for communal systems. These stakeholders can act as lead partners for installing shared plant rooms, leveraging funding for social homes and commercial buildings.

• Spatial opportunities: Given this density, the area is highly suited for a communal heat source to serve the residential core and adjacent units. Development should prioritise the delivery of a single large-scale heat source, such as a communal ASHP or networked GSHP, to serve multiple dwellings and neighboring buildings via a localized communal heat network. Furthermore, the opportunity area is strategically positioned bordering the DESNZ-identified heat network zones. While the mainline rail corridor presents a significant physical constraint for immediate cross-boundary expansion, the site’s high-density profile, characterised by extensive student accommodation footprints and commercial premises, establishes a robust anchor load for localised heat solutions.

This detailed breakdown allows contractors to assess the feasibility of communal plant room locations and engage with the primary local stakeholders needed to deliver a coordinated, multi-dwelling heating solution in AREA ID/NAME.

INSERT SUMMARY FACT SHEET FOR AREA ID/NAME